Aquamarine Zurich

#### I. Institutional Overview The Q4 2025 13F filing for **Guy Spier - Aquamarine Zurich** reveals a period of profound structural transformation, characterized by what can only be described as a "Great Retrenchment." Guy Spier, a renowned disciple of the Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger school of value investing, has long been associated with a "low-turnover, high-conviction" philosophy. However, the data from this quarter suggests a significant pivot—not in philosophy, but in portfolio architecture. With a reported portfolio value of **$147.54 million** and a streamlined list of just **7 holdings**, Aquamarine Zurich has moved from a concentrated portfolio to a hyper-concentrated "fortress" structure. The psychological portrait of the institution this quarter is one of extreme discipline and perhaps a cautious outlook on the broader market. The reduction in the number of stocks to just seven indicates a rigorous "weeding of the garden." For a value investor like Spier, who often speaks about the "Education of a Value Investor" and the importance of avoiding the "noise" of Wall Street from his base in Zurich, this report reflects a return to core principles. The institution is no longer interested in "peripheral" bets or "cloned" positions that do not meet the highest thresholds of certainty and long-term durability. By exiting long-standing positions like **Bank of America (BAC)** and **Micron Technology (MU)**, Spier is signaling that the "harvest season" has arrived for many of his multi-year bets. The scale of the institution, at approximately **$147.54 million**, allows for this level of nimbleness. Unlike multi-billion dollar mega-funds that are forced to diversify due to liquidity constraints, Aquamarine can afford to sit in just a handful of names. This quarter’s activity shows a massive contraction in breadth but a sharpening of depth. The total number of stocks has dwindled, and the portfolio is now almost entirely dominated by the "Berkshire-adjacent" ecosystem. This suggests a psychological state of "returning to the source"—focusing capital on businesses with the most impenetrable moats and the most trusted management teams. Furthermore, the scale analysis shows a fund that is comfortable with high levels of idiosyncratic risk. When a fund holds only seven stocks, and the top position (Berkshire Hathaway) accounts for nearly half of the total value when combining A and B shares, it is no longer tracking any benchmark. It is a pure expression of the manager's highest-conviction ideas. The "psychological portrait" here is one of a "Patient Predator" who has decided that the current market environment warrants a retreat into the highest-quality "toll-bridge" assets, while simultaneously liquidating positions that have either reached full valuation or no longer fit the tightened criteria for inclusion. This is not a fund in "growth mode" in terms of asset gathering; it is a fund in "optimization mode," ensuring that every dollar of AUM is backed by a business model that can withstand significant macroeconomic volatility. #### II. Sector Allocation Analysis The sector allocation of Aquamarine Zurich in Q4 2025 is a stark reflection of Guy Spier’s "circle of competence." The portfolio is almost entirely a bet on the financial infrastructure of the global economy, with a staggering **89.72%** allocated to the **Financials** sector. This is followed by a modest **6.48%** in **Consumer Discretionary** and **3.8%** in **Technology**. All other sectors—Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Communication Services, and Industrials—have been completely zeroed out or were never present. | Sector | Weight (%) | Trend | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Financials | 89.72 | Significant Increase (Relative) | | Consumer Discretionary | 6.48 | Decrease | | Technology | 3.80 | Decrease | | Energy | 0.00 | Unchanged | | Materials | 0.00 | Unchanged | | Real Estate | 0.00 | Exit (SRG) | **Concentration Analysis and Macro Judgment** The concentration in Financials is not just a sector preference; it is a fundamental macro judgment. By holding nearly 90% of the portfolio in companies like **Berkshire Hathaway**, **American Express**, **Mastercard**, and **Moody’s**, Spier is betting on the continued dominance of the American-led financial system and the "toll-taking" nature of these businesses. These are companies that do not just participate in the economy; they provide the rails upon which the economy runs. The sum of the top three sectors is 100%, indicating a total lack of diversification in the traditional sense. This "highly focused" approach suggests that Spier views the current macro environment as one where only the strongest "moats" are worth defending. **Sector Rotation and Defensive Posturing** While the weight in Financials appears to have increased, this is largely a mathematical byproduct of exiting other sectors. The total exit from **Technology** (via **MU** and **GOOGL**) and **Real Estate** (via **SRG**) represents a significant shift. The exit from Micron (MU), a highly cyclical semiconductor play, suggests a move away from capital-intensive, "boom-bust" industries. Similarly, the exit from Alphabet (GOOGL) indicates a retreat from high-growth tech valuations in favor of the "steady-state" compounding of financial giants. The increase in the relative weight of Financials, despite active reductions in shares of **AXP** and **MA**, shows that Spier is consolidating his "surviving" capital into the most resilient names. This is a defensive rotation in spirit, even if the sector (Financials) is traditionally seen as cyclical. In Spier’s world, Berkshire and Mastercard are not "cyclical banks"; they are "compounding machines" with unique competitive advantages that protect them from inflation and technological disruption. **Industry Trend Insights: The Death of the "Speculative" Value Play** One of the most telling signals in the sector data is the exit from **Seritage Growth Properties (SRG)** and **Alibaba (BABA)**. These were "special situations" or "distressed value" plays that required a specific set of circumstances to unlock value. By exiting these, Spier is moving away from "complex" value stories and toward "simple" excellence. The industry trend here is a shift from **AI-adjacent tech** and **real estate turnarounds** toward **global payment processing** and **conglomerate stability**. Spier seems to be signaling that in a world of rising complexity, the most valuable assets are those with the simplest, most inevitable business models. **Macroeconomic Inference** From this allocation, we can infer that the institution is positioned for a "higher-for-longer" or "uncertain" interest rate environment where cash flow and balance sheet strength are paramount. The heavy weight in Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A and $BRK.B) provides a massive indirect exposure to insurance float and a diverse array of wholly-owned subsidiaries, acting as a "private equity fund" within a public wrapper. This is the ultimate "uncertainty hedge." The lack of exposure to Energy or Materials suggests Spier is not interested in betting on commodity price swings, preferring instead to own the "financial processors" who benefit from nominal economic growth regardless of the underlying commodity prices. #### III. Top 10 Holdings Deep Dive Aquamarine Zurich’s portfolio is so concentrated that it only contains seven positions. This makes each holding a "ballast stone" of i ---