Paulson & Co Q4 2025 13F Holdings and Activity Report

I. Institutional Overview: The Psychological Portrait and Strategic Evolution of Paulson & Co.

The 13F filing for the fourth quarter of 2025 provides a transparent window into the investment mind of John Paulson and his firm, Paulson & Co. To understand the current state of this portfolio, one must first understand the pedigree of the man behind it. John Paulson is a figure etched into the annals of Wall Street history, primarily for "The Greatest Trade Ever," where he successfully bet against the subprime mortgage market in 2007, netting billions for his investors and himself. However, the Paulson of 2025 is not the same as the Paulson of 2007. The current portfolio reflects a transition from a massive, multi-strategy hedge fund powerhouse to a more streamlined, highly concentrated, and conviction-driven investment vehicle, often resembling a family office in its risk appetite and long-term horizon.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

II. Sector Allocation Analysis: Macro Signals and Track Selection

Healthcare is the largest allocation, but it is not "defensive" healthcare in the traditional sense (like Johnson & Johnson or UnitedHealth). Instead, it is dominated by Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) and Bausch Health (BHC) . This suggests Paulson is looking for "idiosyncratic alpha"—gains driven by specific company events rather than broad industry trends. Madrigal represents a bet on a revolutionary treatment for NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis), while Bausch Health is a complex turnaround and deleveraging play. By allocating nearly half of his capital here, Paulson is signaling that he believes the "innovation curve" in biotech and the "valuation recovery" in distressed pharma are the most potent drivers of wealth creation today.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

III. Top 10 Holdings Deep Dive: Portfolio Cornerstone and Core Logic

Madrigal is the undisputed "crown jewel" of the Paulson portfolio. Occupying over 30% of the total AUM, this is a conviction holding of the highest order. Madrigal is the leader in the race to treat NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis), a liver disease with a massive unmet medical need and a multi-billion dollar market potential.

Portfolio Construction Logic Summary : The top 10 (or rather, the only 9) reveal a portfolio built on extreme conviction in specific catalysts . Paulson has avoided the "Magnificent Seven" and the AI-hype cycle almost entirely. Instead, he has built a "Fortress of Hard Assets and Life Sciences." The portfolio is low-beta in terms of market correlation but high-volatility in terms of individual stock movements. It is a "professional's portfolio," designed to capture massive gains from a few specific events rather than the general upward drift of the market.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

IV. Major Buys/Additions: Offensive Direction and Capital Flow

In a portfolio as concentrated as Paulson’s, any new purchase or addition is a major signal. Because he only holds 9 stocks, the bar for entry is incredibly high. This quarter, Paulson’s "offensive" moves were focused on a new material science play and doubling down on a distressed healthcare giant.

By making these moves in late 2025, Paulson is positioning for a 2026 environment where he expects "idiosyncratic" stories to dominate. The addition of SOLS suggests he wants exposure to the "industrial renaissance," while the BHC addition suggests he expects the "credit/restructuring" cycle to turn in favor of debtors. He is moving away from "broad market beta" (Honeywell) and toward "specific alpha" (Solstice and Bausch).

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

V. Major Sells and Exits: Risk Avoidance and Strategy Adjustment

The overall quality of the exits this quarter is high. Paulson sold Honeywell at a profit, trimmed Madrigal at a massive profit, and exited Trilogy after a long-term gain. This is not a "distressed selling" scenario. This is a "rebalancing from a position of strength." He is using the proceeds from his winners to fund his "reversal bet" in Bausch Health and his "new theme" in Solstice Advanced Materials.

The exit from Honeywell and the reduction in Madrigal suggest that Paulson is wary of "valuation ceilings." Honeywell is a mature company with limited multiple expansion potential. Madrigal has had a massive run and might be entering a "consolidation phase." By selling these, Paulson is avoiding the risk of "stagnant capital." He wants his money in places where there is a clear catalyst for a 50-100% move, not a 5-10% move.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

VI. Investment Insights and Risk Warnings

Paulson has constructed a portfolio that is almost entirely decoupled from the "AI and Software" mania that has gripped the broader market. His logic chain is clear: 1. Sell the "Broad and Safe" : Exit diversified industrials (Honeywell) that offer limited upside in a volatile macro environment. 2. Harvest the "Proven Winners" : Trim the massive gains in biotech (Madrigal) to manage risk while maintaining a dominant stake. 3. Double Down on "Distressed Value" : Increase the bet on turnaround stories (Bausch Health) where the market pessimism has created a massive valuation gap. 4. Pivot to "Strategic Materials" : Move from pure gold plays into "advanced materials" (Solstice) and "strategic minerals" (Perpetua) that are essential for the modern industrial and defense base.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

Sources and limitations

This report uses public U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Form 13F disclosures and structured data maintained by 13F Hub. A 13F filing is a quarter-end snapshot of reportable long positions, is normally published with a delay, and does not disclose every short position, cash balance, bond, derivative, or non-U.S. asset.

Narrative content is prepared from the same-period SEC disclosure and 13F Hub structured data, then checked before publication. This material is for research and education, not personalized investment advice.