Valley Forge Capital Q4 2025 13F Holdings and Activity Report

I. Institutional Overview

The Q4 2025 13F filing for Dev Kantesaria’s Valley Forge Capital Management reveals a masterclass in high-conviction, ultra-concentrated value investing. Managing a reported portfolio value of $4.41 billion , Kantesaria operates with a psychological profile that is increasingly rare in the modern era of high-frequency trading and algorithmic diversification. With only 9 holdings in the entire portfolio, Valley Forge represents the antithesis of the "closet indexing" prevalent among many large-scale institutional managers. This level of concentration—averaging nearly half a billion dollars per position—suggests an institutional mindset rooted in the belief that true alpha is generated not by tracking benchmarks, but by identifying a handful of "indestructible" businesses and holding them with unwavering discipline.

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II. Sector Allocation Analysis

The combined weight of the top two sectors is an incredible 99.28% . This indicates a "Highly Focused" strategy that ignores the vast majority of the investable universe, including Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Energy, and Utilities. The logic behind this concentration is rooted in the search for "Capital-Light" compounders. Both Financials (specifically financial data and ratings) and Technology (software and payment networks) offer businesses that do not require heavy capital expenditures to grow. Once the infrastructure—be it a credit-scoring algorithm like FICO's or a payment rail like Mastercard's—is built, every incremental dollar of revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

III. Top 10 Holdings Deep Dive

The quarterly change was a marginal +0.13% , but the weight increased from 27.66% to 29.49% . This weight increase was largely driven by stock price appreciation rather than active buying, as FICO’s market price reached $1,691 . This illustrates a "Let the Winners Run" philosophy. Kantesaria is comfortable with a single stock making up nearly a third of his portfolio because FICO possesses immense pricing power. In recent years, FICO has transitioned to a "special pricing" model, significantly increasing the royalties it receives from credit bureaus. Because the cost of a FICO score is a tiny fraction of the total cost of a loan, lenders are "price-insensitive," allowing FICO to raise prices without losing volume. This is the definition of a "moat."

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

IV. Major Buys/Additions

The total estimated addition amount across these 8 stocks is approximately $9.74M . Interestingly, the amount of cash raised from the Intuit (INTU) reduction was significantly higher, estimated at $26.39M . This creates a "Capital Surplus" situation. Kantesaria has "sold A (Intuit) to buy B (everything else)," but he has only redeployed about a third of the proceeds into existing stocks. This suggests that the institution is either building a cash cushion or waiting for a better entry point to more aggressively expand its positions. It is a "Portfolio Optimization" move—trimming a position where conviction might be slightly wavering (Intuit) to bolster the "Core Five."

These additions do not significantly change the risk profile of the portfolio; rather, they "double down" on its existing strengths. The overall valuation level of these additions is high (high P/E ratios), but the volatility is relatively low compared to the broader tech sector. By adding to these names, Kantesaria is increasing the "Offensiveness" of the portfolio in terms of compounding power, while maintaining a "Defensive" posture through the sheer quality of the underlying businesses. He is betting on "Certainty of Growth" over "Magnitude of Growth."

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

V. Major Sells and Exits

Intuit, the owner of TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp, has long been a "Quality" darling. However, it faces different challenges than a FICO or a Mastercard. While FICO has a near-absolute monopoly on credit scoring, Intuit operates in a more competitive software environment. The rise of AI-driven tax preparation and the potential for the IRS to provide its own free filing service (Direct File) represent structural risks that do not exist for S&P Global or Moody’s. The reduction of $26.39M falls into the "High amount + high weight" quadrant of our analysis. While Intuit only made up 4.29% of the portfolio, a 15% trim is a "Strategic Retreat." It suggests that Kantesaria may be concerned about the "Long-Term Logic" of Intuit’s growth at current valuations. With the stock price at $662 , the valuation may have reached a point where the "Risk-Reward" is no longer as compelling as it is for FICO or SPGI.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

VI. Investment Insights and Risk Warnings

The unique investment logic distilled this quarter is the "Hierarchy of Moats." Not all moats are created equal. Intuit has a strong moat (switching costs), but FICO has a "Standard-Setting" moat (legal and industry-wide entrenchment). By trimming Intuit to add to FICO, SPGI, and Mastercard, Kantesaria is prioritizing "Structural Monopolies" over "Commercial Dominance." The logic chain is: Sell the software that people choose to use -> Buy the data and networks that people are required to use.

For the retail investor, the reference value here is the "Power of Doing Nothing." In a quarter where many managers would have felt the need to "churn" the portfolio to justify fees, Kantesaria made almost no changes. This highlights the value of "High-Conviction Patience." However, the caveat is that this strategy requires an institutional-grade ability to identify "Indestructible" businesses. Simple imitation of this concentration without the same level of fundamental insight could lead to disaster. Valley Forge’s strategy is a "Quality-at-Any-Price" (within reason) approach that relies on the compounding power of 20%+ Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) businesses.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

Sources and limitations

This report uses public U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Form 13F disclosures and structured data maintained by 13F Hub. A 13F filing is a quarter-end snapshot of reportable long positions, is normally published with a delay, and does not disclose every short position, cash balance, bond, derivative, or non-U.S. asset.

Narrative content is prepared from the same-period SEC disclosure and 13F Hub structured data, then checked before publication. This material is for research and education, not personalized investment advice.