Valley Forge Capital Q1 2026 13F Holdings and Activity Report

I. Institutional Overview

The scale of Valley Forge Capital has remained robust, with its $3.38 billion assets under management (AUM) positioned within a very narrow selection of "toll-bridge" businesses. In the world of finance, a toll-bridge business is one that provides a vital service or piece of infrastructure that others must use, allowing the provider to collect a steady fee with high margins and significant barriers to entry. By holding only seven stocks, Dev Kantesaria is essentially stating that there are very few businesses in the global economy that meet his rigorous standards for durability, pricing power, and long-term compounding potential. This is not a "trading" shop; it is a "holding" shop, where the average holding period for several core positions exceeds nine years.

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II. Sector Allocation Analysis

The combined weight of the top two sectors is, by definition, 100%. However, even within these sectors, the concentration is skewed heavily toward Financials, which command two-thirds of the total portfolio. This 66.55% allocation to Financials is not a bet on traditional banking or insurance—sectors often plagued by interest rate sensitivity and credit cycle risks. Instead, it is an allocation to "Financial Infrastructure." By focusing on credit rating agencies and payment processors, Valley Forge is betting on the volume of global debt issuance and the velocity of global consumer spending. The concentration of over 70% in just a few sub-industries indicates a "highly focused" investment philosophy. This approach assumes that the risks of being wrong about a specific sector are outweighed by the benefits of owning the absolute leaders within those sectors.

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III. Top 10 Holdings Deep Dive

Despite a negligible reduction in the number of shares held (a mere 0.01% decrease), the portfolio weight of FICO dropped from 29.49% to 24.33%. This significant weight change, despite almost no change in the number of shares, indicates that the stock’s market performance lagged behind other holdings or that the portfolio’s total value grew faster than FICO’s market cap during the quarter. The motivation for holding FICO remains its absolute monopoly power in the credit scoring space. For an institution like Valley Forge, FICO represents a "royalty on the American credit system." The lack of active selling suggests that Kantesaria believes the fundamental story—driven by price increases and the expansion of FICO scores into new financial products—remains intact, even if the stock’s relative weight has naturally drifted lower.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

IV. Major Buys/Additions

From a fundamental perspective, ASML’s industry position is the definition of a monopoly. There is no alternative to their high-end machines. As the world moves toward 2-nanometer and 1-nanometer chip architectures, ASML’s pricing power and backlog are expected to grow. The timing of this add—in the first quarter of 2026—suggests that Valley Forge views any recent volatility in tech as a "valuation trough mining" opportunity. They are adding to a "generational winner" at a time when the demand for AI-capable hardware is transitioning from a speculative trend to a permanent industrial requirement. This move significantly increases the "offensiveness" of the portfolio, adding a high-growth, high-tech engine to a collection of steady financial compounders.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

V. Major Sells and Exits

For a firm that typically holds positions for a decade, a 35% cut is a loud signal. The accurate qualitative title for this move would be "Visa: Strategic Rebalancing in Favor of Mastercard." While Visa remains a holding (5.36% of the portfolio), it has been demoted from a core pillar to a secondary position. The motivation likely stems from a "relative value" judgment. Mastercard and Visa often move in tandem, but Mastercard has historically shown slightly higher growth in cross-border volumes and value-added services. By slashing the Visa position while slightly adding to Mastercard, Kantesaria is concentrating his "payments" bet on his highest-conviction horse. This move also reduced the portfolio’s overall exposure to the consumer spending sector, perhaps reflecting a "tactical defense" against a potential slowdown in global discretionary spending.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

VI. Investment Insights and Risk Warnings

This quarter’s activity reveals a sophisticated logic chain. The institution is not merely "buying tech" or "selling financials." Instead, it is refining its definition of what constitutes a "perfect business." For years, that definition was centered on the "financial rails"—companies like Visa, MSCI, and Equifax that facilitate the flow of capital and data. However, the total exit from MSCI and Equifax, combined with the major reduction in Visa, suggests a pivot. The manager has identified a new, perhaps even more essential, layer of global infrastructure: the semiconductor equipment that enables the entire digital economy.

For retail investors, the reference value here is the concept of "Competitive Advantage Durability." Valley Forge doesn't care about quarterly earnings beats as much as it cares about whether a company’s moat is widening or narrowing. The move into ASML is a judgment that its moat is widening, while the moats of financial data providers may be stagnating. However, investors should be cautioned that this "Extreme Concentration" strategy is institution-specific. Valley Forge has the research depth to monitor seven companies 24/7; a retail investor who copies this 7-stock portfolio without that depth faces massive idiosyncratic risk.

This section shows only part of the complete report. View the app for the full analysis, position-level detail, and quarter-over-quarter tracking.

Sources and limitations

This report uses public U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Form 13F disclosures and structured data maintained by 13F Hub. A 13F filing is a quarter-end snapshot of reportable long positions, is normally published with a delay, and does not disclose every short position, cash balance, bond, derivative, or non-U.S. asset.

Narrative content is prepared from the same-period SEC disclosure and 13F Hub structured data, then checked before publication. This material is for research and education, not personalized investment advice.